Eight Things You Need to Know When Punting
Discipline
It doesn’t matter what you are betting on, racing or sport, the most important thing is discipline. Only bet on something you really want to bet on and don’t just bet on something because it is there. Don’t chase your losses and if you lose, so be it, there is another race coming up tomorrow.
Discipline is an area most punters could improve in.
Price is King.
The second most important thing in punting is ‘value is king or price is king’. Never take under the odds of what you think it is even if you think it is going to win. So many times I have professionally priced a horse $2.05 and it is $2 and everyone says it’s only five cents difference. But would you take $1.95 about heads in a coin toss, no you wouldn’t. You can’t make money from taking unders and it doesn’t matter if it is one cent under.
On the pace.
I will back horses up on the speed versus those who flash home from the tail. It doesn’t matter if I am betting on the gallops, I prefer backing horses near the lead. Stats speak for themselves and horses in the top three or four will win a lot more races than those in the back three or four and there is less interference.
If I Assess a horse at $3 chance but it drifts from $4 to $8 just minutes before the race. Do I still back it? I don’t take any notice of what is happening in the betting market and I don’t let it affect any of my decisions. If a horse is $4 out to $8 and I like it I am getting better value about that horse. If you have done the form properly, you have to trust your price. Yes, you can take a little bit of notice of markets but what is the use of doing form if you are going to listen to someone else?
If you listen to Tips you will go broke. Here is one of my reasons. A ten horse race has 10 jockeys, 10 trainers,10 strappers, 100 0wners and they have 1000 friends. Every one of them loves their horse, work it out for yourself. Follow your instincts and the form you have done.
Find the Losers First.
I eliminate any horses I think can’t win. Secondly, speed maps, I like horses well placed in the run. So go through and pick out horses you think are going to be well placed in the run. Horses on the pass and up near the lead in the gallops will give you more winners than losers.
Pick out jockeys that can ride winners it will make a lot of difference. A big thing is a poor jockey getting off and a jockey getting on and that can make a huge difference in a horse’s performance.
Look for the Signs.
I also like to look at horses that were in the market last time. If something was a $2.00 favourite last week but ran fifth and it is in the same field again next week and is $10, well there is a reason it was $2.00 last week. I like to look at things that happened in the past and bring it to the present, check replays and steward reports. Class is a big thing as well and if a horse is down in class I like to give it a high rating.
Staking Plan.
Some punters seem to back a few winners but somehow always finish behind at the end of the day. How can they turn this around? One thing you shouldn’t be doing is ploughing away for six races and turning your $100 into $250 and then go and have $250 on the last race trying to make $1000 because that’s pointless. Stick to a constant staking plan and if you have $20 on an even money pop in Race 1 you should be having $20 on an even money pop in Race 8 as well. Don’t have bigger bets to get out or to get further in front. It is not a one-day race we are playing here, it’s a 30-year race. Money Management is the only way to make money in this industry.
Track Bias is over rated.
Track bias has become bigger than Ben Hur in recent years. How should the average punter approach track bias?
If you are sitting in a pub all you can do is see what is happening in a race. You have got to have your plan before the start of the day and just stick to it. Yes, there is track bias but I think it is overplayed these days and unless you are really into it, it is something not to worry about too much.
Want to know more?
Contact me today on 1300 RACEBIZ or via email on the contact form.
Cheers. Tim.