If you want to ask me what the best value bet in the world would be, I’d like to be flipping a coin for 51 cents. That to me is a great bet. You would like to do that for the rest of your life. But that’s not the way horse racing is.
When it comes to punting with your hard earned cash you should only bet when you have “VALUE” and never play unless you’re getting the best of it.
I’d like to share this quote about Value from “Six Secrets of Successful Bettors”:
“People talk about value as if it is a ‘factor’ or an ‘angle’ when in fact it is the definition of success at parimutuel wagering. Every horse entered into a race has some chance of winning it, whether it’s over 90 percent or under 1 percent, and the whole point of the game is to find situations where the public’s assessment of that probability varies from yours. That’s the definition of showing a profit. When someone says he ‘likes’ a horse in a race, it’s a meaningless statement unless he is saying implicitly that he thinks the horse has a greater chance of winning than the likely toteboard price.”
What separates winning and losing punters?
If there’s one key thing that separates winning punters from losing punters, its understanding the concept and idea of “VALUE”. This has been written about day in and day out but it amazes us how ignored it is every day by a large section of punters in Australia. Maybe because most punters just don’t understand how to work this out or don’t have the time to spend working this out. It is so in grained in our culture of racing to hear punters say “Who do you like”, when the real question should be “Who do you like and at what price?”
Handicapping and assessed odds explained.
Handicapping is all about assigning a precise probability to a given event. Consider a horse whose true assessed odds are even money. Not what the market is offering on the tote or bookmakers boards. We are saying if a given race were run under the exact conditions 100 times the horse would win 50 of them. The next step involves the Bookmakers odds and the tote board. What price are you being offered?
Let’s say we are being offered 4-5 on the tote. That means if you bet $2 on the horse you’ll get back $3.80. If the Assessed odds are even money, that’s a lousy bet. If you take the bet the horse may still win. But if you make the bet 100 times, you’re certain to lose over time, because the wins cannot make up for the loses. Even if you win in the short term you’ll lose in the long run.
On the other hand, if the tote is offering you $5.20 for your even money chance and it is going to win 50% of the time it is a very good bet.
Where the odds offered on the Tote or the Bookies board are lower than the assessed odds this is what we call an Underlay. And where the odds on the tote are greater than the Assessed odds this is called an Overlay.
Where to find Assessed Prices.
Most tipping serves will give you the horses to back but here at RaceBiz we ALSO give you Assessed Prices on all our selections to work with. Using our selections and tips you can quickly check what is being offered in the market and work out for each horse if there is an overlay – a good value bet – or an underlay – a bad value bet.
It’s free to take a look at all of our packages and decide which is best for you. The value starts from there – assessed odds on all selections, black bookers via our weekly emails and direct assistance by calling 1300 RACEBIZ.