RaceBiz Email to Subscribers 12 March 2017
I thought I would start with some of the insights from Saturday’s racing (March 11,)and how I viewed the day, especially at FLEMINGTON. After the first two races, anything drawn inside barrier 5 had a distinct advantage if they raced on the pace. This is one of the things that makes tipping selections difficult as how the day is going to pan out is an unknown factor. However, this is where punters with tips can also do some of the work to ensure that better profits are made.
A question to ask yourself early in the day is: are the horses winning “on the pace” or coming from the back of the field. Yesterday the majority of winners were on the pace, especially in the sprint races, which automatically eliminated some of our key selections, including Best Bet SPEITH and TERRAVISTA, EXTREME CHOICE, DUBIO and OREGON’S DAY to name a few.
By the time we got to Race 7, looking at what would come from behind and what would be on the pace, this left three of the selections in contention for winning. And the outcome was:
- REDKIRK WARRIOR – ran 1st and paid $44.00 (on betfair)
- STAR TURN – ran 3rd and paid $3.10
- ILLUSTRIOUS LAD – unplaced.
So, if you have the time, doing a little work of your own and waiting to see what the emerging pattern is in the first couple of races will help to increase profits compared to putting all bets on before the race meeting starts. So, a question to ask yourself: is it good to bet early in the day?
Full results for yesterday are on the website now. And as a last minute bonus all members were given the Professional Membership selections, which added returns in R 8 for the Trifecta and F4, plus the Flemington Quaddie that paid $4165.10 on UBET. And for the FREE TIPS:
FLEMINGTON R4 H3 ESHITRAAK – Missed the start and off the pace, lost all chance.
FLEMINGTON R5 H2 I AM A STAR 1st. $2.09 (Betfair)
Best Outsider is also at FLEMINGTON R6 H1 MISS ROSE DE LAGO Recommend to back each way. 3rd $2.20 (Betfair)
I also wanted to take a little time to explain the difference between two betting markets and how you can use this to help you when you are punting. In the first image below, you can see that SPEITH drifted in the market in the latter parts of the betting which is not a good sign for a favourite. This shot was taken about 5 minutes before the race.
The second shot is Betfair and this shows you the difference in pricing. For example, REDKIRK WARRIOR Assessed Odds $16 on RaceBiz selections, and on the tote $31 and on Betfair with one and a half minutes to go was paying $48. In the right hand column you can see how much money is on each horse. The favourite SPEITH had over $220,000 and REDKIRK WARRIOR (the winner) had just $7,700. This is where ratings can steer you in the right direction and come into their own.
As I have mentioned often, I use Betfair as my punting platform most of the time, and you can see in this snapshot, the difference in prices and how to quickly see where the money is going. If you are interested in exploring this as an option to help you punt, please let me know and we can look at both a trial and training. This is offered on the website in our Professional Membership software Package.
Quick Picks Package is coming this week and we will send out more information in the next couple of days and also confirm the location for the Brisbane Catch up in April.
Hope you had a good day yesterday and, drop me a line or call through on 1300 RACEBIZ if you have any questions.
Happy Punting!
Tim